Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 9.773506 11.492404 13.382373 15.608845 18.153885 20.966022 24.302037
2024-12-29 7.181257 9.405907 12.082539 15.516331 19.778104 24.865318 31.366101
2025-01-05 5.339342 7.681191 10.725265 14.920190 20.490785 27.566879 37.156490
2025-01-12 4.283845 6.685923 10.022422 14.906108 21.764434 30.928377 43.946684
2025-01-19 3.514090 5.905460 9.430869 14.873401 22.897643 34.095029 50.650151
2025-01-26 3.139511 5.623506 9.476553 15.697932 25.249192 39.061323 60.156533
2025-02-02 2.799102 5.323649 9.429659 16.339091 27.344443 43.778824 69.617700
2025-02-09 2.536268 5.100344 9.456882 17.069191 29.603468 48.866153 79.941075
2025-02-16 2.189284 4.663967 9.061357 17.044331 30.634877 52.126711 87.691123
2025-02-23 1.826720 4.130754 8.417403 16.506727 30.747305 53.917100 93.234113
2025-03-02 1.510818 3.627923 7.751617 15.836771 30.543505 55.140704 97.901720
2025-03-09 1.333625 3.376378 7.517756 15.910356 31.610092 58.490430 106.184471
2025-03-16 1.160585 3.107067 7.222207 15.852339 32.468223 61.605548 114.386487
2025-03-23 1.016703 2.876147 6.971893 15.851375 33.427117 64.958725 123.210397
2025-03-30 0.847069 2.547568 6.466180 15.274615 33.238731 66.264982 128.569473
2025-04-06 0.745013 2.366015 6.253038 15.270707 34.143347 69.576660 137.629364
2025-04-13 0.655153 2.196683 6.041362 15.240862 34.983990 72.811372 146.722192
2025-04-20 0.627429 2.193893 6.220410 16.084452 37.659823 79.633261 162.707817
2025-04-27 0.590764 2.157700 6.312707 16.739855 39.992396 85.933470 178.050532
2025-05-04 0.561193 2.136745 6.439638 17.485759 42.568712 92.845264 194.879413
2025-05-11 0.498873 1.999453 6.248237 17.460421 43.483387 96.555020 205.829201
2025-05-18 0.423279 1.799411 5.859228 16.911316 43.198874 97.854022 212.206430
2025-05-25 0.353717 1.600004 5.437785 16.226945 42.542271 98.341785 217.002920